TheMalcontent

Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 20 DEC 2023 21:15 PST - Russia's Troop Numbers Don't Add Up

Added 2023-12-21 10:43:24 +0000 UTC

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SITREP 564 is 67 pages long.

What's Happening

What's the big story? Russia made a series of announcements and decisions about stop loss and who can end military service today. When you run the numbers, the claims of 315,000 to 375,000 Russian casualties become very plausible. Moscow math isn't mathing.

What's the second story? As the debate on future U.S. aid to Ukraine drags on, more European voices are warning that if Ukraine falls, war is coming to Europe.

What's the bonus story? Robert "Magyar" Brovdi releases a second rebuttal to the New York Times, showing which combatant is leaving their dead behind on the battlefield.

Summary

There are map updates
There are assessment updates
Fighting continued in the Kupyansk AO
The Saltiv transit depot in Kharkiv was hit by two Russian missiles, causing significant damage
Fighting continued in the Luhansk AO
Russian forces launched probing attacks near Bilohorivka [Luhansk]
Russian forces made tactically significant gains south of Spirne in the Siversk AO
Fighting continued northwest and southwest of Bakhmut
Fighting continued in the Klishchiivka AO
Fighting continued near Horlivka
Russian forces advanced on the railroad grade toward Novobakhmutivka on the north flank of Avdiivka
Russian forces continue to suffer heavy losses east of Stepove
Fighting continued northeast of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and in the southeastern industrial zone
Fighting continued on the south flank of the Avdiivka
Ukrainian forces still hold the northwest corner of Marinka while Russian troops attempt to advance on Pobieda
Ukrainian forces made marginal gains south of Novomykhailivka
Fighting continued in the Orikhiv AO
Russian launched 29 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Kyrnky
Russian troops were killed in a friendly fire incident south of Kyrnky
Robert “Magyar” Brovdi responded to the New York Times story with pictures
For the first time in three weeks, a Kilo-class submarine of the Black Sea Fleet went on patrol
Ukrainian drones and cruise missiles successfully attacked long-range communication arrays in occupied Crimea
Outside Moscow, an unknown drone crashed and exploded
Ukrainian hackers took down the IT infrastructure of Rosvodokanal
In the last 36 hours, Ukrainian air defense shot down 53 of 55 Shahed-136 drones launched by Russia
Russian forces are experiencing shortages of heavy equipment and weapons, reducing combat power
Ukraine believes commercial air service will restart in 2024
Kyivstar has finished restoring its network eight days after a Russian cyberattack
The Chief of the General Staff of the Belgian Army warned that Moldova and the Baltic states were at risk of invasion if Russia defeats Ukraine
Over 5,600 trucks are stuck at the Ukrainian border due to blockades and heavy traffic
Ukraine built 50,000 FPV one-way drones in December and will increase volume to 84,000 a month in 2024
Lithuania provided a military aid package to Ukraine
The Czech military is preparing a fundraiser to support the construction of 10,000 FPV one-way drones for Ukraine
The U.S. has asked Japan to provide air defense assistance to Ukraine
U.S. Senate leadership confirmed there would be no vote for Ukrainian military aid in 2023
U.S. Secretary of State said that the U.S. has a clear plan for Ukraine through 2025, but the nation has to survive 2024
Josep Borell of the E.U. said that the Europe “project” will suffer significant damage if Russia is permitted to win its war of aggression
Ukraine and NATO will hold its first official joint Council meeting on January 17
A Russian Su-25 crashed on December 17 during a CAS mission due to poor weather
Wounded mobiks shared a video of them being handcuffed and forced back to the front
Eleven new citizens of the Russian Federation were handed summons for military duty at their naturalization ceremony
The head of the Directorate for Migration for the Leningrad Region was arrested for providing false paperwork to more than 16,000 undocumented workers
Russian contract soldiers cannot end their service until they turn 65 or the war ends
The Russian Ministry of Defense will not release the September 2022 mobiks until the war or partial mobilization ends
Russia has set a target to recruit 400,000 contract soldiers in 2024, but it won’t be easy
Disease is spreading in Russian trenches
Blocks of ice falling off a Moscow building injured new conscripts waiting outside the military commissariat
Companies from 11 Western nations are still providing materials and equipment to Russia’s military industry
The co-founder of the anti-war movement Left Resistance was sentenced to prison
Russia is shutting down Wikipedia RU and launching its own alternate version
Russian journalist Dmitry Kamalyagin is wanted for discrediting the Russian Federation Armed Forces
A Russian TV station was fined for showing an 11-year-old music video that was deemed as spreading LGBT propaganda
The U.N. confirmed that 142 Ukrainian civilians were extrajudicially executed since February 24, 2022
Human Rights Watch accused Russia of forcibly conscripting Ukrainians to fight against their own country
Russia destroyed a marked warehouse of the Red Cross in free Kherson
President of Moldova Maia Sandu says that Russia will attempt to interfere with fall 2024 elections
Moldova has started modernizing its military
The Russian Foreign Ministry is mad at Finland
Poland has fired the leaders of its public media channels
China told Rossiya Airlines no flights from Russia to Beijing
Japanese tire maker Bridgestone sold off its Russian assets

Where's the damn podcast?

That is 100% on me. I am steadfast in no more work after 01:00 hours local time (here it is 03:45 hours), and yesterday's SITREP wasn't complete until after 03:30 hours. That means no one to sign off on the script. Working on a solution. The challenge is as more and more OSINT accounts give up, get deleted by social media, or are canceled for the right or wrong reasons, the intelligence gathering for us keeps getting longer and longer.

You can listen to previous podcasts through the Megaphone web app and your favorite podcast provider, including,

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