Hashtag Basketball projections update (Notebook drop)

While I make tweaks to the projections every day to react to news and injuries, I also do a big run-through at the end of every week.

This season I'm going to try and make notes while I do them to share with Patreon subscribers (let me know if this is something you want me to keep doing).

Here's this week's notebook drop.

Atlanta Hawks:

Jalen Johnson is playing more than expected, minutes up to 29 after starting last night. Usage for Dejounte Murray down a touch, but I don't expect him to continue playing this poorly.

Brooklyn Nets:

Coach Vaughn said you'll rarely see Nets' players cross the 30-minute mark, but it looks like Mikal Bridges is the exception, averaging 35.1 minutes per game. Spencer Dinwiddie is seeing a drop in usage with Ben Simmons advancing from playing against fold chairs to playing in the NBA again.

Boston Celtics:

Kristaps Porzingis is putting up numbers like he's wearing a Wizards jersey. Have upped his usage, but not too much since I'm expecting Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday to contribute more than they have to start the season. Have lowered Brown's usage a touch since it may have been too high during the pre-season.

Charotte Hornets:

Mostly unchanged. P.J. Washington has started the season shooting 58%, which is inflating his scoring. I'm expecting it to level out.

Chicago Bulls:

Same as Charlotte, mostly unchanged, and for the opposite reason than PJ, Nikola Vucevic has started the season poorly shooting 41% from the field. I'm monitoring him, but not making any changes yet.

Cleveland Cavaliers:

Mostly unchanged. Haven't seen enough time with their starting 5 together to get a proper feel of their rotations yet.

Dallas Mavericks:

It feels like it's only a matter of time until Dereck Lively II becomes their starter. For now we play the Jason Kidd waiting game. I'm upping his minutes by 2 for now.

Denver Nuggets:

Mostly unchanged. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's rankings are inflated by his 3.3 steals per game, which doesn't feel sustainable.

Detroit Pistons:

Kinda impressed that a Pistons team isn't coached by somebody who can't decide who their starting C is. Have upped Jalen Duren's projections and lowered Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman's (not that either of the latter were rosterable to begin with). Have increased Cade Cunningham's usage, and lowered Jaden Ivey's even more than I did before the start of the season. I'm keeping an eye on whether Cade can sustain his 44% shooting from the field, which doesn't seem like much, but it's a good improvement from his past 2 seasons of sub 42% shooting from the field.

Golden State Warriors:

Mostly unchanged.

Houston Rockets:

Small adjustments to Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green. Giving them another week to get used to a new coach.

Indiana Pacers:

Lowering Obi Toppin's minutes a touch.

Los Angeles Clippers:

Mostly unchanged.

Los Angeles Lakers:

Coach Ham suggested that LeBron playing 29 minutes a game will be a trend this season, and has backed it up by playing him an average 34.4 minutes a game to start the season. Austin Reaves has started the season poorly, mostly due to shooting 30% from the field, but I'm keeping his projections unchanged for now.

Memphis Grizzlies:

I'm expecting that we've all added Xavier Tillman Sr. in as many leagues as possible. His projections had a small tweak mid-week, and are now updated as a 30 minute starter. Ziaire Williams also gets a bump in minutes.

Miami Heat:

Mostly unchanged.

Milwaukee Bucks:

Lowering Khris Middleton's minutes down a touch since he doesn't seem fully fit just yet.

Minnesota Timerwolves:

Bumping Naz Reid up to 22 minutes per game. Now could be a good time to make a sneaky buy-low offer for Karl-Anthony Towns after his bad shooting in week 1.

New Orleans Pelicans:

Lowering Jonas Valanciunas' role a touch.

New York Knicks:

They've been such a mess across the board I'm giving them a clean slate heading into week 2, although I'm lowering Josh Hart's minutes by a few.

Oklahoma City Thunder:

I may have had Josh Giddey's projections too high during the pre-season. Am lowering them a bit for now, and will keep an eye on it throughout the week. Cason Wallace is playing more minutes to start the season than I expected (he's very good, so that's probably why). I've upped his minutes a touch, but his numbers are inflated by a ridiculously high FG%.

Orlando Magic:

They're deep in every position. Giving it another week to get a better idea of their rotations before making any big changes other than lowering Wendell Carter Jr. by a few minutes.

Philadelphia 76ers:

Mostly unchanged. While we're seeing Maxey and Oubre outperforming their projections, we're yet to see this team with Harden playing (which could be soon?).

Phoenix Suns:

Mostly unchanged due to the team not playing with their starting 5 yet.

Portland Trailblazers:

Shaedon Sharpe gets the biggest role increase with Simons out for 4-6 weeks. Malcolm Brogdon also gets a temporary role increase. I'm taking a FGA away from Deandre Ayton and some minutes away from Jerami Grant.

San Antonio Spurs:

Mostly unchanged. A 40 point blowout last night gives their numbers a hit with such a small sample size.

Sacramento Kings:

Mostly unchanged.

Toronto Raptors:

Lowering Jakob Poeltl's minutes a touch. They've had an OT game which inflates some of their numbers a little.

Utah Jazz:

Small sample size, but the addition of John Collins has hurt Walker Kessler more than expected. I've taken a minute off his projections. It also feels like Utah is working their way into giving Keyonte George a bigger role as the season goes on, and I've lowered the minutes of Collin Sexton.

Washington Wizards:

Mostly unchanged except for lowering the minutes of Daniel Gafford a touch, who just can't find a way to stay on the court for more than 26 minutes a game.

Chat soon,
Joey