Hashtag Basketball projections update (Notebook drop)

Another week, another notebook drop! Here's the main changes that I've made to my projections over the past 7 days:

Boston Celtics:

Remember that stretch in December where Jayson Tatum was shooting sub-80% from the line? He’s back to shooting them at 83% for January. Have given him a small increase in FT%. Derrick White‘s production has taken a hit recently due to Jaylen Brown upping his usage rate. Have adjusted both accordingly.

Detroit Pistons:

You know how sometimes you spend so much time trying to work out a blockbuster fantasy trade with a league mate, and after days of trying, it doesn’t go anywhere, and you end up just trading trash players so you can say you’ve made a trade before moving on? The Bagley and Livers for Gallinari and Muscala trade feels like that.

Golden State Warriors:

Draymond Green is due back from suspension any game now. Kerr has shown much much he prefers his vets over the young guys, so keep an eye on how much time Jonathan Kuminga gets.

Houston Rockets:

Cam Whitmore continues getting a decent stretch of minutes. Have temporarily upped his minutes to 20.

Indiana Pacers:

Tyrese Haliburton could be back in a few weeks, so the T.J. McConnell add should remain valuable until then.

Los Angeles Clippers:

Norman Powell hasn’t missed a free-throw since November 22, 2023 (that’s 53 in a row if my quick calculations without double checking is right). He’s also shooting 52.3% from the field over the last 30 days. Have adjusted both shooting %s.

Memphis Grizzlies:

This team is a complete mess. Bane is being re-evaluated in 6 weeks, Marcus Smart is out for 6 weeks, and Morant is out for the season. March is 6 weeks away, and they’re only 4 wins ahead of Portland in 13th place in the West. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bane gets re-evaluated in 6 weeks and they decide to sit him for longer. If you’re in a deep league I’d be ok with taking a flyer on any young Grizzlies player. Vince Williams Jr is the clear winner, but guys like Xavier Tillman and GG Jackson have value when JJJ misses time. I’ve also upped Ziaire Williams‘ scoring a touch.

New Orleans Pelicans:

The buy-low window is open for Brandon Ingram if you’re looking for somebody who has only played over 62 games once in their career.

Philadelphia 76ers:

So far this season Tobias Harris is averaging 21.8 points in 9 games when Embiid is out injured, and 16.6 points when he’s healthy. You can count on him scoring more until Joel returns, and I’ve temporarily upped his scoring in the meantime.

Portland Trailblazers:

Portland has been, and will continue to have games this season where they get blown out, and their starters sit, so expect some unreliable box scores. Duop Reath continues to be streamable when Ayton sits (averaging 11.8 points, 6.3 rebounds in 12 games Ayton has missed so far). Scoot Henderson is currently on a bit of a run, but his shooting %s are going to hurt you.

San Antonio Spurs:

The Spurs are trying things out with a traditional PG in the starting 5 again (for now). In the 5 games Tre Jones has started, he has averaged 16.6 points and 5.2 assists in 30.1 minutes. I’ve upped his projections, but they’re more in line with what he averaged last season.

Chat soon,
Joey