Flash Report 07 SEP 2023 - 06:40 PDT - Israel-Hamas/Iran War Update

Israeli officials have been unable to restore control of 14 settlements currently occupied by Iran-backed Hamas militants. Fighting was ongoing between the IDF and Palestinian militants in East Jerusalem. Officially, 40 people are reported dead, 779 wounded, and 57 captured/kidnapped. In our assessment, the numbers are likely much higher.

The Rutenberg Power Plant, the second-largest in Israel, was hit by multiple rockets, knocking out power in the southern part of the country. We were able to confirm the reports through geolocated pictures and 📷 data from NASA FIRMS.

NASA FIRMS also showed telltale signs of 📷 significant fighting along the eastern border of the Gaza Strip, consistent with thermal anomaly patterns we have observed in other war zones. Hamas militants shared a video of an 📺 Israeli military base being looted.

Elective surgeries have been canceled nationwide, and Israel has ordered a halt to travel plans by all healthcare employees, the cancellation of vacations, and published a directive for medical staff currently abroad to return.

We have reviewed numerous videos that show atrocities committed by Hamas militants, including the mass killing of civilians, sexual assault on women, and dozens of soldiers and civilians being taken hostage. Two videos that we are not going to share for now are equivalent to atrocities committed by Russian troops in Ukraine.

A nationwide state of emergency has been declared, as well as a call for mass blood donations and the full activation of police forces. Israel announced that it would institute a draft and, if necessary, activate "hundreds of thousands."

Weapons and ammunition found on deal militants are from Iran, and Tehran announced its support of Hamas.

While we cannot provide an informed assessment of the geopolitics, we can provide a battlefield assessment. Hamas has the initiative theaterwide, and Israeli forces have yet to demonstrate a coordinated response. Local officials have admitted that numerous citizens are trapped in towns occupied along the Gaza Strip.

We have serious questions and doubts that this was executed by Hamas independently. A massive two-hour-long nationwide tubed artillery barrage was followed by coordinated strikes on key checkpoints, roadways, and one military base. The attacks occurred during Shabbat and a planned protest by the IDF. After creating seven breaches, Hamas quickly consolidated their positions, formed gaps, and moved more irregular militants forward. Shortly after, communications, logistics, and electrical power were intentionally targeted. Hamas militants knew where to hit when to hit, and what to hit it with, and objectively are conducting a better offensive in the first eight hours than Russia did on February 24, 2022.

This raises a big question as the level of planning, execution, staging, and logistics far exceeds the capabilities Hamas has demonstrated in the past. Securing 14 settlements and using mobile defense to hold them indicates this is a much larger operation than an intifada. This shows a level of planning and execution that exceeds the capabilities of Palestinian militants, which suggests that there is the presence of military personnel from a third-party nation. While Iran is the obvious first choice, other nations can't be ruled out. Given Benjamin Netanyahu's relatively close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, we do feel comfortable enough to say that we highly doubt Russian little green men are involved.

It also raises significant questions on how Hamas was able to arm itself so well and with this much depth despite claims of crippling sanctions - some of the tightest controls in the world. After the breach, more militants are moving through the breakthrough created at the border, with 📺 militants marked with friend/foe colors like troops in Ukraine.

As this was being written, retired General Mark Hertling shared on Twitter, "Operation “Al Aqsa Storm” isn’t the typical Hamas attack. Israel is facing attacks on multiple domains & fronts, from an opponent with allies & supporters (Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, Iran, even Russia), during a symbolic time (50th anniversary of Yom Kippur). Much more complex."

We feel much better now about our assessment and questioning aloud which little green men (which isn't pointing a finger at Russia) are involved. On October 3, the leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, wrote on Twitter, "The usurper regime is coming to an end. Today, the Palestinian youth and the anti-oppression, anti-occupation movement in Palestine is [sic] more energetic, more alive, and more prepared than ever during the past 70 or 80 years. God willing, the movement will achieve its goals."

Getting a few hours of sleep.