Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 17 OCT 2023 - 15:25 PDT - ATACMS Enters the Chat
Added 2023-10-17 22:26:31 +0000 UTCThis isn't the first time a weapon system suddenly "appeared" in Ukraine without prior notice. AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missiles just suddenly - appeared. MALDs just suddenly - appeared. And we can now add MGM-140 M39 ATACMS missiles with a range of 165 kilometers that are launched by the M270 high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) for a weapon that just suddenly - appeared.
The MGM-140 M39 was produced between 1990 and 1997 and has a payload of cluster munitions that include anti-personnel and anti-materiel bomblets. Pictures shared by Russian sources who broke operational security - again - to provide outstanding battle damage assessment showed the missiles used were produced in 1996 and are part of the "expired" inventory that was awaiting refurbishment or destruction (at taxpayer expense either way).
We're still researching the outcome of the strike on the Russian airfield in occupied Berdyansk. We can confirm at least four helicopters were completely destroyed based on available videos, along with a large ammunition depot. Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting between 9 and 10, Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters were destroyed or damaged. The single attack may have destroyed up to 14% of the remaining Ka-52 airframes in the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).
Commercial satellite providers such as Planet Labs and Maxar are not selling images for Ukraine anymore, so we're dependent on their PR departments sharing them publicly or a news organization with more financial resources to get images.
It is unknown how many or which variants of ATACMS Ukraine received. It is unknown when they received them. It is unknown if Ukraine received these cluster munitions because the existing inventory of 155 mm DPICM rounds has almost been fully consumed or because Ukraine has shown they are using DPICM with caution and good faith, as they assured Washington.
Expect more strikes and also expect the success rate to decline as Russian air defenses learn, as they have with Storm Shadow/SCALP and HIMARS.
