Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 21 OCT 2023 - 20 Trucks of Aid while Global Finger Pointing Gets Worse

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

There has not been any ground fighting in southern Israel and the border of the Gaza Strip for a week, and the operational tempo remains unchanged. Artillery, antitank missile, and rocket attacks from Gaza continued, with the IDF and IAF responding with artillery and airstrikes. The Hamas militant group al-Qassem Brigade remains responsible for the largest number of strikes. A number of other militant and terrorist organizations loosely associated with Hamas but with strong ties to Iran are also responsible for strikes within Israel. This includes the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Abu Ali Mustafa Brigade, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. While aligned in their cause to destroy Israel, the groups are factionalized due to differences in political and religious values and what a post-Israel Palestine would look like.

Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Minister Benny Gantz inspected troops preparing for a land assault on Gaza at IDF Southern Command in Beersheba.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

Fighting has intensified on the Israel-Lebanon U.N. border. Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias aligned with the Axis of Resistance conducted 15 to 20 strikes on Israeli military positions and civilian areas. Hezbollah may be engaging in shaping operations, targeting surveillance and electronic monitoring systems along the border.

Rockets targeted the Mount Doa area, an unpopulated region dotted with firebases, checkpoints, forward operating bases, and command and control centers (C2). Israel responded with counterbattery fire and airstrikes. An antitank-guided missile (ATGM) struck a civilian area in Margaliot, wounding two Thai nationals who work in the area. The Hezbollah firebase was destroyed in an airstrike. Three IDF soldiers were wounded in Bar’am, one seriously, in an exchange of artillery and rocket fire. The IAF conducted additional airstrikes in southern Lebanon, eliminating a squad of militants preparing to fire on the settlement of Shlomi and 📺 destroying an ammunition depot.

The West Bank

There was no change in operation tempo or intensity of clashes in the West Bank. Approximately 20 incidents between the IDF and Hamas-aligned militants occurred, with several additional demonstrations. Hamas has declared October 22 a global day of protest, so the reduced number may be related to future planned activity. Hamas-aligned militants and terrorist organizations are increasing their use of IEDs, with three reported incidents in the last 24 hours, compared to one a day since October 19.

The IAF conducted an airstrike on a mosque in Jenin, with the IDF claiming a tunnel complex under the temple was being used as a C2 node for militants to organize future attacks. The IDF released pictures and videos showing the bunker entrance within the mosque compound and some of the intelligence gathered to justify the strike. The Palestinian Red Crescent said one Palestinian was killed and three wounded but didn’t clarify if they were combatants or civilians. Area civilians told reporters they had received warnings from the IDF to stay away from the area due to a planned unspecified attack.

Israeli troops raided the West Bank home of Saleh al-Aruri, a deputy leader of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s overall leader and one of the founders of the al-Qassem Brigade. Troops raided his home in Arura, arresting approximately 20 people, including his brother and nine nephews, according to the Mayor of Arura, Ali al-Khasib. al-Aruri was not at the home when it was raided.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

In southern and central Israel, rocket attacks launched from the Gaza Strip targeted Ashdod, Rishon Lezion, Ness Tziona, Sderot, Tel Aviv, Bat Yam, Yavne, Ashkelon, Zikim, Karmia, Sufa, and Holit. Hits were confirmed in Ashdod, Ashkelon, and Sderot, with no reports of fatalities.

The IDF claimed that since October 7, Hamas and the affiliated milita and terrorist organizations have launched 6,900 rockets toward Israeli, with 550 malfunctioning or failing while in flight.

IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the IAF would be intensifying airstrikes on Gaza, “We have to enter the next phase of the war in the best conditions, not according to what anyone tells us. From today, we are increasing the strikes and minimizing the danger.”

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq took responsibility for kamikaze drone strikes targeting U.S. forces stationed at Ain al Asad Airbase and the Erbil International Airport in Iraq. The group claimed both strikes were successful with no supporting evidence.

Unnamed senior Israeli officials told Israel news agency Ynet that the release of two U.S. citizens held hostage by Hamas did not influence Israel’s plans to conduct a land operation in the Gaza Strip. The IDF said that preparations for the ground offensive continued and the attack would start “soon,” adding that troops were undergoing training in alignment with the “approved operational plans.”

ASSESSMENT: We maintain our assessment that the delayed response is partially due to the low level of readiness within the IDF and documented complaints of equipment shortages, outdated equipment, and quality control issues. Tel Aviv is also under tremendous international pressure to pause before launching a ground offensive and to plan a proportional response that does not worsen the current humanitarian crisis or use World War II air superiority tactics. We further assess that if Israel intends to occupy all of the Gaza Strip through force and establish civil and military control, it lacks the resources, personnel, or financial resources to support a multi-year operation that will require an active duty force of an estimated 600,000 to 750,000. Additionally, such an occupation, especially if a “total war” campaign is executed, is unlikely to receive continuing support.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, Speaking at a peace summit in Egypt, called for Israel to respond proportionately to the October 7 Hamas militant invasion that left 1,300 dead. He said that the “wider context” of the ongoing war needs to be considered and that a two-state solution is “the only realistic foundation for true peace and stability. Israelis must see their legitimate needs for security materialized, and Palestinians must see their legitimate aspirations for an independent state realized.”

While there are many calls for a two-state solution, some Palestinian and Israeli leaders and their supporters say that a two-state solution is impossible and that war will continue until one side is eradicated.

The border crossing at Rafah between Egypt and Gaza opened on October 21 and permitted 20 trucks to cross into Gaza before Egyptian officials sealed the border again. There is no indication of when the border crossing will open again despite statements from the U.S., Israel, and Egypt of supporting the U.N. demand for "sustainable" humanitarian aid deliveries.

U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said he was “confident that this delivery will be the start of a sustainable effort to provide essential supplies,” adding that the first convoy to cross into Gaza “must not be the last.”

Egyptian officials did not permit foreign passport holders or dual citizens to exit Gaza despite wide-scale international pressure from dozens of nations.

The New York Times was forced to retract a story after misquoting U.N. spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, claiming he said the U.N. did not check the first 20 trucks for contraband. Shortly after the initial New York Times story ran, the Israeli Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories said the story was false. “All of the equipment was checked before going into Gaza,” it says in a statement, noting that the shipment included “only water, food and medical equipment.”

Dujarric did say that trucks entered Egypt using an “expedited process” and that it would not be used again. The Red Cross took delivery of the aid and will provide distribution. Over 200 trucks are stuck in Egypt awaiting permission to enter Gaza.

ASSESSMENT; The truth matters and right over first. This is why we don’t report on some stories, or there is a delay before we cover them. Our team knows a thing or two about reporting critical news in a war zone. Why is the larger media getting so much wrong? Many newsrooms have fired their fact checkers and reduced the number of full-time foreign correspondents.

The World Health Organization, the World Food Program, the U.N. Population Fund, and UNICEF criticized the small shipment into Gaza, calling it “far from enough.” The grounds called for an immediate and unrestricted ceasefire and unrestricted access for humanitarian aid shipments.

A Times of Israel story supported our earlier report that Israeli officials approved the shipment of humanitarian aid on Tuesday, quoting unnamed senior Israeli officials. We believe the report is accurate based on statements from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, United Nations officials, and statements by multiple Egyptian government officials maintaining their opposition to opening the Rafah crossing as late as Wednesday. Israeli officials speaking off the record said that Egypt was nervous about allowing Palestinian refugees into their nation.

ASSESSMENT: We are unsure why Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is not drawing an appropriate level of ire for his blatant interference in permitting an adequate supply of humanitarian aid to move into the Gaza Strip. The geopolitics are outside of our pay grade. This does not change the fact that Israel has closed its border crossing with the Gaza Strip, but Egypt should be recognized as a significant contributor to the humanitarian crisis.

Doctors Without Borders repeated earlier claims that Gaza’s healthcare system is “facing collapse" due to the number of patients they are caring for and a lack of resources. The amount of medical supplies in today’s aid shipment and who the recipients will be is unknown.

IDF spokesman Hagari reported that 210 people are being held hostage by Hamas and aligned terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip. The effort to identify all persons being held hostage continues, and the updated number does factor in Friday’s release of U.S. citizens Judith and Natalie Raanan. The White House reported eight other family members remained in captivity, and two more were killed during the October 7 Hamas invasion.

UNRWA reported that since October 7, at least 17 staff members have been killed in Gaza and expects the number to climb. They did not clarify if the fatalities occurred at UNRWA facilities.

The IDF reported that among the 20 hospitals in the mandatory evacuation zone of north Gaza, six have evacuated, ten have yet to, and four have refused. The spokesperson acknowledged that the evacuation of some patients would be “hard“ but added that the IDF has a “direct relationship with almost all hospital managers.” The IDF accused Hamas of using hospitals and immediate areas for military operations “because it knows this is a sensitive site we will avoid attacking.”

Editor’s Note: Don’t cancel your subscription yet – keep reading.

During a press conference, an IDF spokesperson discussed tactics for strikes around declared humanitarian corridors. “It’s a safe zone. We have a system in which every time we decide that an area…is a safe zone, we declare no attack in this area. We won’t attack them.”

He went on to explain that the IDF has changed its definition of a “legitimate target” because Hamas uses civilian infrastructure to launch attacks, adding that when Hamas “turns a private home into a legitimate target…anyone who supports that home is a legitimate target.”

Editor’s Note: The … eliminated only the word “and” for readability.

ASSESSMENT: One IDF spokesperson declares hospitals a sensitive site that they “will avoid attacking,” while another declares that the rules of engagement for IAF mission planning have been softened, and Israel reserves the right to attack declared safe zones. The messaging from the IDF reads like newspeak, and this isn’t the first incident.

The IDF public relations arm has shown it is completely unprepared to manage communication in wartime. The sooner they can align their messaging and limit the number of people who can speak officially to the press, the better. This mixed messaging only fuels social discourse of “Israel said” and “you’re lying” when both sides are simply picking the IDF message that aligns with their worldview. That’s a bad place to be when you’re trying to control the broader narrative and justify military actions. Bluntly put, Tel Aviv is making Moscow and its disastrous messaging to justify the Russia-Ukraine War look like it came from a well-oiled machine.

The IDF reported they destroyed the home of terrorist Maher Shalloun in the Aqabat Jabr refugee camp. Shalloun was responsible for the killing of American Elan Ganeles in February 2023. There was no information on whether the home was occupied or not. We have previously assessed that collective punishment of the residents or heir to the property is not a deterrent to future terror attacks.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 37 nations reporting 218 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 8 dead, 22 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 30 dead, 1 hostage, 6 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• The Netherlands – 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 5 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Russia - 19 dead, 7 missing, 2 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 19 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 18 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 9 dead, 9 unaccounted
• United States - 31 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Former U.S. Congressman Justin Amash reported that “several” family members were killed at the Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church in Gaza when the IAF bombed a building adjacent to the complex. “The Palestinian Christian community has endured so much. Our family is hurting badly,” Amash said in a statement.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

No new developments.

Geopolitics

At a contentious peace summit in Cairo, no progress was made, with several nations using the platform to accuse others of inflaming the Israel-Hamas War. First, the more rational voice in the room.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas condemned “the killing of civilians on both sides” and called for the “release of all civilians, prisoners, and detainees.” He further declared that Palestinians will stay in the Gaza Strip, saying, “We will not leave, we will not leave, we will not leave, and we will remain in our land.”

Editor’s Note: Must…stay…neutral…but El-Sisi makes it really hard.

President of Egypt El-Sisi used the summit to berate Western countries for not condemning Israel’s ongoing bombing campaign of the Gaza Strip while refusing to add language to the closing statement condemning the October 7 attacks in Israel that killed 1,300. “While we see [in] one place officials rushing and competing to promptly condemn the killing of innocent people, we find incomprehensible hesitation in denouncing the same act in another place.”

Multiple representatives at the summit called for El-Sisi and the Egyptian government to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza, with the Egyptian leader unmoved.

The summit ended without releasing a joint statement due to a rift between attendees on whether to condemn Hamas. Western delegates reportedly demanded “a clear condemnation placing responsibility for the escalation on Hamas,” according to the French news agency AFP. Arab nation delegates, including Egypt, released a state that criticized world leaders for seeking to “manage the conflict and not end it permanently.”

Did we mention our previous assessment that El-Sisi and the Egyptian government are not getting the political heat and public condemnation they deserve?