Israel-Hamas Flash Report 11DEC23 15:00 PST - Hamas's Al Quassam Brigades Are Cracking Apart

Disinformation from Hamas and social media has alleged that videos and pictures of surrendering Hamas fighters are just civilians, or Israeli psychological operation (PSYOPS), or are actual surrenders with fighters and civilians executed after being stripped to their underwear. Choose your own adventure. The truth is since Thursday, at least two companies of Hamas fighters with civilians mixed in, and today, an undersized battalion of 500 has surrendered without a fight. The IDF claims they have killed 7,000 Hamas fighters in addition to up to 1,500 militants killed from October 7 to October 10. We have no way to validate casualty claims from either combatant.

About those photos and videos of Palestinian men stripped to their underwear

Let's start by going on the record to say that the IDF has not used proportional force for weeks in Gaza, executing the heaviest bombing campaign against an urban area since March-May 2022 by Russia at Mariupol. We'll also add that if we take Hamas's claim of 17,000 civilians killed since October 8, 2022, at face value, for a population of 2.3 million people living in one of the densest urban areas on the planet, the number killed is less than 1% of the population. In comparison, if we pick the mean between the low and high estimates for Mariupol, 13.5% of the population was killed over 82 days. Another 10,000 civilians remain imprisoned, and at least 20,000 deported against their will. And finally, this is not the human suffering Olympics; no civilian should die in war - but they do. The 1:1 comparisons are critical to show that while the IDF is well past a proportional response, Russia's destruction of Mariupol did not meet war crime or genocide criteria by the International Criminal Court (ICC). That may change if we ever learn how many civilians are in those mass graves.

We can't comment on Israeli standard operating procedure for processing prisoners of war, but the United States uses the four S's: secure, search, speed, and safe.

1. Secure the prisoners

2. Search the prisoners

3. Speed the prisoners to a rear area as combatants have an international humanitarian law obligation to protect POWs

4. Ensure their safety and fair treatment

Israel is fighting a combatant with a history of using IEDs and other tactics to commit perfidy, which in itself is a war crime. You can't pretend to surrender.

As Russian troops became more radicalized and used grenades and ambushes to kill Ukrainian troops during fake and real surrenders, over the summer, we saw Russian troops being forced to strip to their underwear before being searched. In our assessment, Israel requiring surrendering Hamas fighters to strip to their underwear, especially with company-sized groups, was pragmatic. Treating military-aged men sheltering with Hamas fighters as a potential threat was also a pragmatic decision. 

The IDF sped the groups from the conflict area, and yes, civilians were caught up in the surrender. Releases started within two hours of the first step, secure. We know this not from IDF claims but from family members of Palestinians taken prisoner, who reported that they received phone calls confirming the release within two hours of being taken into custody. Among the group that surrendered on Thursday was Palestinian journalist Diaa Al-Kahlout. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) called for his immediate release, and we don't know his status.

One aspect of the Israel-Hamas War is any video released by the IDF is deemed a fake, requiring an excruciating amount of time to authenticate. Videos circulating on Saturday added fuel to the claim that the surrender on Friday was staged. The BBC, which has its own credibility issues, reviewed the videos and concluded they were authentic. Their conclusion was the person who appeared to surrender weapons two different times was part of the same continuous video and went back and forth surrendering assault weapons and sidearms. We cannot confirm the authenticity of the video, and there isn't a single source of information that can be trusted in the Israel-Hamas War.

On Sunday, the IDF admitted the videos from Thursday and Friday should have never been released but defended the practice of having detainees strip to their underwear. According to International Humanitarian Law (IHL), the release of videos of this nature is considered a war crime. It is worth noting that on October 7, Hamas released videos of IDF soldiers and police officers being paraded through Gaza City and assaulted.

In our assessment, the surrenders are authentic. In warfare, if you have the surrender of a large group of fighters, a company or larger, it tends to snowball. This is exactly what we're seeing, with a group of up to 500 fighters surrendering en masse in Khan Younis today. The IDF claims that the groups that were surrendering are citing the loss of communication with their commanders. This also would support IDF claims of targeted strikes on Hamas militant leaders, breaking down the chain of command. While pictures of the surrender were released today, they were taken at a distance that made identification impossible. 

There is one more sinister sign that the Hamas Al Qassam Brigades are cracking apart. On Sunday, a Hamas spokesperson, in a televised statement, said Israel would not get the hostages returned alive "without an exchange and negotiation and meeting the demands of the resistance."

Last month during the ceasefire, senior Hamas official Bassem Neim said the militants were "ready to release all soldiers in exchange for all our prisoners."

Israel says there are still 137 hostages in Gaza, while activists say around 7,000 Palestinians are in Israeli jails. There is no way Israel will meet this demand, as previous large-scale releases have ended in disaster. This reinforces our video on TikTok, released on December 8, that the United States should not have vetoed the UN Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire. Hamas would not agree to the terms of the resolution, which included the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. 

Also on Sunday, embattled Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu called on Hamas to give up. "It is the beginning of the end of Hamas. I say to the Hamas terrorists: It's over. Don't die for [Yahya] Sinwar. Surrender now."

ASSESSMENT: If Hamas were to kill the hostages, they would lose their leverage against the Israeli government and would cause significant damage to their hybrid warfare tactics, which have been masterfully executed. We believe this is a bluff to try to buy more time. Further, such a threat wouldn't be made by a combatant who is "winning." We're very surprised at the speed of the ongoing IDF exercise and little evidence of destroyed heavy equipment. Hamas has released a number of videos showing Merkava main battle tanks being hit by RPG-7s, but little evidence of their total destruction or crew kills. It is likely the RPG-7 hits are resulting in mission or mobility kills, with the crews surviving.

Israel is also racing against time, as they have completely lost the information war and have no meaningful way to recover, adding pressure to end major combat operations as soon as possible. Prime Minister Netanyahu is also facing growing backlash from the Israeli people due to his inflexibility.

In conclusion, Hamas fighters are showing signs of collapsing command and control, low morale, and exhaustion. Additional surrenders will likely continue. The faster the IDF can achieve all of its mission objectives, the faster major hostilities will end, which is good for everyone.