Updated: Russia-Ukraine War Flash Report - 05 FEB 2024 - 14:30 PST - Good News and Bad News

The original version contained, "Yes, Russia has a 5:1 artillery advantage, but it has to be repeated: Russia's artillery capabilities are already degraded by 82% compared to June 2023."

It should have read, "Yes, Russia has a 5:1 artillery advantage, but it has to be repeated: Russia's artillery capabilities are already degraded by 82% compared to June 2022."

First, the bad news. Videos are confirming that Russian forces have advanced into Avdiivka from the north. We didn't have visual confirmation, but there were so many reports, including from very reliable Ukrainian sources, that we followed the herd. Yes, I know, we've been bitten in the past, and it was a tough decision. Those reliable reports included some hedgehogs. (someone can explain in the comments)

Now, the good news. The reason we can confirm the map is accurate is videos are out of the Ukrainian counterattack, and Russian prisoners are being taken after they became surrounded. We don't know the extent of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and can't share the video because it shows POW faces; they are being well treated, and we don't want to break OPSEC with a geolocation.

HOT TAKE: If what we've seen is indicative of the entire Russian advance, Russia is making the same mistake they made in the southeastern industrial district and at Tsarska Okhta on the southern edge of the settlement. Instead of consolidating smaller gains to ensure they are held, under-trained and under-equipped light infantry fanned out over a much wider area. 

Yes, Russia has a 5:1 artillery advantage, but it has to be repeated: Russia's artillery capabilities are already degraded by 82% compared to June 2022. Ukraine's artillery is degraded by 67% compared to June 2023 but only 33% compared to June 2022. Why is that important?

At Bakhmut, this was a tactic that PMC Wagner used, and they could maintain 20K artillery rounds just on the frontline of Bakhmut until mid-February 2023. At that point, Russia had used up its Cold War dividend, and the number of fire missions it could conduct theaterwide was in sharp decline. Shoigu! Gerasimov! When Ukrainian forces tried to counter, Russian artillery prevented any movement.

That isn't possible anymore. Airstrikes by the VKS are mostly standoff attacks, and the CEP of UMPK glide bombs has improved dramatically from last year but still isn't close to their Western peers. Russian drone operations are degraded, at least for the short term, after yesterday's successful attack on the command, control, and launch site.

Back to analysis.

It is yet to be seen if this is a localized success or a broader counter. It is very possible that Russian gains were overstated and that, in reality, the gray area expanded while the line of conflict didn't move as far south as believed. That's happened repeatedly since October 2023. Given the numerous reports, we're inclined to believe that this was a serious push by Russian forces, and Ukraine has its hands full.

Expect February and early March to be extremely difficult. President Vlad "the impaler" Putin is putting tremendous pressure on the Ministry of Defense to deliver him something for the upcoming elections, now 37 days away.