Understanding Estimated Value (EV) 101

Understanding Estimated Value in TCGs

So you’ve pondered over it, and now you’re thinking about turning your Trading Card Game hobby into a legitimate revenue stream… And we’re not talking about gambling on sealed product or doing quick flips… we’re talking about Competitive Play and earning your keep through sweet, sweet victory.

And let’s not sugarcoat it, you’re a good player.

Really Good. And you’ve always wanted to pursue playing professionally but didn’t know where to start.

Getting to turn your passion into a way to pay the bills is a dream for thousands of Card Players all around the world

Today we’re going to hopefully help you better understand how to decide which events (or card games in general) make the most sense for you to pursue competitively.

Key Terms in Professional Play: ESTIMATED VALUE

When considering professional play, or even just taking some PTO to travel for any given event you must consider one VERY crucial thing. You’ve probably heard players bring up this term time and time again, but maybe you haven’t. That term is EV. Or Estimated Value.

In trading card games EV is a way to calculate how much money, prizes, or equity you can expect to gain on average from entering an event or making a choice… factoring in probabilities, costs, and potential rewards.

It’s a concept borrowed from poker, casinos, and finance, but pros use it heavily in competitive TCG play.

Here’s how it works in practice:

At its core, EV is Probability (or your realistic chance of reaching each outcome, whether that be Day 2ing an event of making it top 8, etc.) multiplied by payout or the prize or reward available. This can be measured in Cash, product, travel stipends and more depending on the game.

Once you factor that in, you subtract costs from entry fees, travel, lodging and time spent preparing for the tournament from the Product of your equation above and that gives you your Estimated Value.

You following? Here's an example:

Suppose you’re entering a $50 dollar tournament with 100 players where the prizing is heavily weighted to the top 8 finalists, with first place taking home $1000, Second place taking home $500 and the rest taking home $200 for a total prize pool of $2700 dollars after added cash.

If we estimate your skill and metagame preparation, let’s say your percentages look like this:

5% chance to win (1st place)

5% chance for 2nd

10% chance to Top 8

80% chance to win nothing

Your EV would fit into an equation like this:

(0.05 × $1000) + (0.05 × $500) + (0.10 × $200) + (0.80 × $0) = $95 expected payout.

And after subtracting the $50 entry fee, your net EV would be $45.

So, on average, you would “make” $45 of equity every time you enter an event that has these odds.

Remember when you thought high school Algebra was a waste of time? Yeah, me too.
But why does all this math mumbo jumbo matter to a professional TCG player?

Understanding EV not only helps you decide what events to participate in and how much money you could make over a particular number of events but also helps beyond the tournament structure for deciding what to do with product prizing.

EV can be used to decide if it’s better to crack open a booster box you won or sell it sealed. Which singles you could speculate on if you do decide to open product and if certain events, such as side events or online events, make more sense for you to grind instead of testing your luck in the main event due to the cheap entry and nature of the prizing.

To wrap this all up, EV is the professional player’s tool to measure whether playing an event is worth it in the long run. It’s less about ONE tournament and more about managing risk/reward over a season of events to try and create a steady income stream.

Whatever level of player you aspire to be, EV is something that you should always consider. Hopefully after me breaking down some really over the top equations that I could’ve explained in a few sentences (sometimes people like the over explanation to be honest), you have a better understanding of how to calculate this important aspect of tournament play in competitive TCGs.

Thanks for coming not sleeping through math class today, this is Professor Elizondo signing out until next time. 😊