MMA Breakdowns and Bets

B’s Journal UFC Saudia Arabia & BKFC/BYB picks

Added 2025-01-30 18:33:47 +0000 UTC

Hey guys, sorry no pod this week. Santino is out with business and book stuff but will be back soon. All journals and picks will be posted here.

Hamdy Abdelwahab

Typically a matchup I hate, I am a big Pougues guy, but I feel Hamdy will push harder and do more. He’s been out awhile, but his technical age wrestling looked pretty good in his debut. Power in his hands and can put punches together, I think it’s a tough first round for him but I think he wears on Pougues late and wins by a small margin. Not my favorite spot by any mean, just slight lean that Hamdy stays a little busier.

Lucas Alexander

Tough record but feels like we are getting something special here. This matchup could prove tough if Bogdan is on the gas the entire time, but he’s a precise puncher. He puts combos, he’s not afraid to trade. This fight feels like it ends early one way or the other. Bogdan has shown to be comfortable on his back quite a bit too. Give me more well rounded Alexander.

Jasmine Jasudavicious

While I agree Mayra will be one of her toughest tests, I think end of the day, Jas wrestling for top and Mayra’s willingness to lay on her back and hunt subs will be the difference. Mayra is very tough and will make things competitive but I see a Jas decision here.

Hadzovic/Mckinney

No interest here at McKinney -500. Hadzovic isn’t a scrub and if he doesn’t die after 5 I like his odds. Live bet look or pass. Only other look would be McKinney 1/2 sub

Thomas Peterson

His body looks awful and he seems like he would suck but his striking is improving each outing. He can really wrestle, he will punch through fatigue and he can take a beating. If this goes outside round 1 I really like Peterson to push a pace and finish him. Will take a little Peterson pre, look for live entries and round 3 props small.

Muhammad Naimov

I think this fight is going to play out much closer than the line shows. Ultimately I think Naimov is just too big too physical and fighting in the Middle East. No interest in betting this one.

Nurmagomedov/Oliveira

This feels like the closest fight on the card. I think Said is better literally everywhere, but Oliveira cage presence and pressure a real thing. I like spots on Nurmagomedov sub, I think his grappling in phenomenal, other than that will be looking like entry on Oliveira if I can see the tides shifting. Could be interested in overs too competitive fight.

Jarzinho Rozenstruik

Way faster good defense, good cardio. To me he is the side with a hedge on Pavlovich KO1. No reason to get cute here. +245 ML

Shara Magomedov

Seems like this will be a tough puzzle to solve but Shara will kick anything he can reach. Feels like the volume and home field advantage, plus the way Shara uses kicks like hands. I like him to win a decision.

Davis/Ziam

Passing on this one. Mike Davis is so so good but feels like Ziam has a lot of momentum and getting better each time out. I know who on paper the better guy is and who has fought tougher competition so I will just pass on this spot.

Nassourdine Imavov

Of course cardio is a concern for Imavov as always but I don’t think Izzy will do anything to really push the gas. If it’s at range striking I would favor Izzy slightly, although fighting off his back foot for 25 mins isn’t ideal. I think Nassourinde has really clean long punches and can touch izzy when he leans back. Would give a grappling edge to nassourdine if he chooses to use it although I don’t think he will just to conserve his energy. We also don’t know if Izzy’s chin is compromised. Feels like every fight ends weird ways for him now. Give me Imavov at + $

BKFC

Straight plays

Jared Lennon -200

Grady Wall -105 (DraftKings)

Cameron Vancamp +170

Will Santiago +170

Kastriot Xhema +180

Anthony Foye +350

Parker Porter -155

Parlays

Strode/Ward -155

Strode/Ward/Wall/Lennon +288